If today were election day.

Aggregated across every major Swedish pollster. House effects shown. Every number traces back to its source poll.

Left bloc

47.5%

Centre

5.2%

Right bloc

43%

fig. D-01 — support per bloc, 30-day moving average

Party by party

Four ways to read each number.

Include smaller parties

№	Party	Latest	30-day avg	vs 2022
01	S Socialdemokraterna	30.9%	34% 30.9–35	+3.7
02	SD Sverigedemokraterna	19.2%	20.4% 18.9–21	-0.1
03	M Moderaterna	18.2%	18.3% 16.5–19	-0.8
04	V Vänsterpartiet	8.8%	7.5% 7–9	+0.7
05	MP Miljöpartiet	7.1%	6% 5–7.9	+0.9
06	C Centerpartiet	6%	5.2% 5–6.8	-1.5
07	KD Kristdemokraterna	5.6%	4.3% 4–5.7	-1
08	L Liberalerna	under 4% 2.4%	2.4% 1–4	-2.2

fig. D-02 — latest poll, 30-day average and range, per party

Latest from Novus, 2026-05-17 (n=5527). The 30-day average is sample-weighted (√n) across 53 polls from 9 pollsters. Range = min/max across the most recent 12 polls. Aggregated from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0) · fetched 23 May 2026 · 17:46.

The long view

Nine elections on the same y-axis.

Every marker is a final Riksdag result, 1991 to 2022, from val.se. The line connects consecutive elections. The dashed rule is the 4% threshold.

Highlight

fig. D-03 — support 1991–2026, election results and rolling average on the same y-axis

House effects

Pollsters disagree. We show it. We don’t average it away.

Novus no documented house tilt

Demoskop historically friendlier to SD vs. avg.

Verian (Sifo) historically friendlier to S vs. avg.

Ipsos no documented house tilt

SKOP no documented house tilt

Sentio no documented house tilt

Indikator Opinion no documented house tilt

United Minds no documented house tilt

Inizio no documented house tilt

fig. D-04 — documented house tilts, per pollster

Reading the polls right

Four things to watch.

01
A single latest poll moves first on news, but it’s noisy.
02
The 30-day average is steadier, but trails real shifts by 1–2 weeks.
03
The range (min/max across recent polls) tells you how much pollsters disagree right now.
04
Below 4%, a party gets no seats. Watch the threshold for KD, L and MP.