If today were election day.

Aggregated across every major Swedish pollster. House effects shown. Every number traces back to its source poll.

Socialdemokraterna leads right now on a 32.2% 30-day average, and the Left bloc currently polls strongest at 47.2% combined.

Left bloc

47.2%

Centre

6.4%

Right bloc

42.4%

fig. D-01 — support per bloc, 30-day moving average

Party by party

Four ways to read each number.

Include smaller parties

№	Party	Latest	30-day avg	vs 2022
01	S Socialdemokraterna	32.5%	32.2% 30.9–33.7	+1.9
02	SD Sverigedemokraterna	19.2%	19.6% 18.9–20.4	-0.9
03	M Moderaterna	17.7%	16.8% 16.3–19	-2.3
04	V Vänsterpartiet	7.8%	8.3% 7.1–9	+1.5
05	MP Miljöpartiet	6.3%	6.7% 5.7–8.1	+1.6
06	C Centerpartiet	7%	6.4% 5.4–7	-0.3
07	KD Kristdemokraterna	6.1%	6% 4.3–6.5	+0.7
08	L Liberalerna	under 4% 1.7%	2.3% 1.7–4	-2.3

fig. D-02 — latest poll, 30-day average and range, per party

Latest from Indikator Opinion, 2026-06-26 (n=1751). The 30-day average is sample-weighted (√n) across 60 polls from 9 pollsters. Range = min/max across the most recent 12 polls. Aggregated from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0) · fetched 2 Jul 2026 · 16:12.

The long view

Nine elections on the same y-axis.

Every marker is a final Riksdag result, 1991 to 2022, from val.se. The line connects consecutive elections. The dashed rule is the 4% threshold.

Highlight

fig. D-03 — support 1991–2026, election results and rolling average on the same y-axis

House effects

Pollsters disagree. We show it. We don’t average it away.

Novus no documented house tilt

Demoskop historically friendlier to SD vs. avg.

Verian (Sifo) historically friendlier to S vs. avg.

Ipsos no documented house tilt

SKOP no documented house tilt

Sentio no documented house tilt

Indikator Opinion no documented house tilt

United Minds no documented house tilt

Inizio no documented house tilt

fig. D-04 — documented house tilts, per pollster

Reading the polls right

Four things to watch.

01
The latest single poll reacts fastest to news, but it’s noisy.
02
The 30-day average is steadier, but lags 1–2 weeks behind real shifts.
03
The spread — the gap between the highest and lowest recent poll — shows how much the pollsters currently disagree.
04
Below 4%, a party wins no seats at all. Watch that threshold for KD, L and MP.

The polls show where Sweden stands at large. The compass shows where you stand.

Start the compass